What Could The Future Of MLB Free Agency Look Like?

Chris Elwell

Staff Writer

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The new era of young superstars in baseball has changed the game forever, with contracts that have shattered previous highs in the number of years, average annual value, and total contract value. The value of superstar players has never been as high as it is right now, and players who will be testing free agency in the coming years are looking for long-term contracts to make them among the highest-paid players in the league.

Since 2020, nine of the 12 largest contracts in MLB history have been agreed upon, all for at least nine years and $325 million. The status of contracts of this magnitude is polarizing with different meanings for players, organizations, and even fans who have turned the product into what it has become and how it shapes the future of baseball.

League Changing Contracts

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During the 2023-24 offseason, Shohei Ohtani signed what then was the richest contract in professional sports history for ten years, $700 million, with $680 million deferred to the ten years following the contract's end. The Los Angeles Dodgers gladly agreed to this contract and took advantage of his $2 million salary for the next ten years to round out their roster with high-caliber players that led to the team winning the World Series in five games.

Ohtani went to every team in free agency with this proposal to allow his team to win a World Series and sign more players. This deal set a precedent across the league that has since been emulated, deferring mass amounts of money after the terms of the deal. 

Ohtani’s contract held the record for less than a year when Juan Soto signed in December 2024 with the New York Mets on a massive 15-year, $765 million contract. Unlike Ohtani’s contract, Soto will receive no deferred money, making the deal the highest present-value contract agreed to in history.

Still just 26 years old, Soto has put together a Hall of Fame-caliber resume and will likely play the rest of his career in Queens after spending the last three seasons with three different teams. 

Besides Soto, this offseason saw more lucrative contracts handed out to free agents, as the New York Yankees agreed to an eight-year, $218 million contract with Max Fried, which surpassed David Price’s seven-year, $217 million deal with the Boston Red Sox as the largest contract given to a left-handed pitcher in league history. Other top free agents this offseason, including Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell agreed to deals worth more than $100 million, despite all being over 30 years old.

Potential Record-Breaking Contracts

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The value of a top player at their respective position increases with almost every signing and offseason. Going forward, players across the diamond can expect a massive payday, whether it's an extension or a free-agent deal.

The biggest winners of this offseason are the players entering free agency in the next three offseasons. Both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker are set to hit free agency after the 2025 season, and after the Soto contract, their values have skyrocketed to potentially each see a contract worth $400 million or more.

Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays discussed a contract extension before Spring Training, but the Blue Jays were reportedly “not close” to his number, Guerrero Jr. said. 

Guerrero Jr. gave the team a deadline to agree to an extension and will now focus on the 2025 season and look ahead to his future once the season ends. Entering his age 26 season, Guerrero Jr. will command a massive contract coming off one of the best years of his career in 2024, in which he hit a .323/.396/.544 slash line with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs in 159 games.

Kyle Tucker has spent his entire seven-year career with the Houston Astros, but a blockbuster trade sent him to Chicago to play his final year before free agency with the Cubs. Tucker is coming off a season in which he only played 78 games, but was playing at an MVP-caliber injury before landing on the Injured List in early June with a shin contusion.

Tucker, who turned 28 in January, has been one of the most complete players in baseball since his first full season in 2021 and was a key contributor to the Astros’ championship run in 2022. Houston’s hesitance to hand out big contracts to their star players has led to the departures of players like Tucker, and in his final year of arbitration before entering free agency, Tucker has the opportunity to command even more money on his contract with another great season. 

Guerrero Jr. and Tucker are both seen as franchise cornerstones regardless of what team they play for next season. It is impossible to say the size of their future contracts, but you can expect both to be near the top of their position and around the league in annual value. 

Looking Ahead

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The 2025-26 free agent class has some of the top pitchers in baseball with Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams all set to enter free agency. The contract value of premier starting pitchers has risen exponentially to a point where $100 million or more almost seems normal. 

In the case of Helsley and Williams, both are among the top relief pitchers in baseball, and another elite season could put them ahead of Mets closer Edwin Diaz’s five-year, $102 million deal as the richest contract in MLB history for a relief pitcher.

Helsley is coming off a 2024 season in which he led the league with 49 saves and finished ninth in Cy Young voting. Since becoming the Cardinals' full-time closer, the flamethrowing right-hander has been one of the most reliable relievers. He regularly tops 100 miles per hour with his fastball and a wipeout slider that measures as one of the best individual pitches in baseball. 

Williams was traded to the New York Yankees this offseason and will take over the closer role for the reigning American League champions. Coming off an injury-riddled season in which he only appeared in 22 games, Williams remained at the top of the ranks among relief pitchers with a 1.25 ERA and 15.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Diaz was just two years younger when he signed his record-breaking deal and was coming off a 2022 season where he recorded 32 saves and an all-time strikeout season with 118 in just 62 innings. If both Helsley and Williams have another elite season like fans have come to expect from them, there is a chance that one or both of them see a contract similar to Diaz’s and set the new precedent for contracts for elite closers at the top of their game.

Could the New CBA Benefit Players Even More?

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The upcoming offseason will indicate what kind of contracts will come in free agency in the following years. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement will expire after the 2026 season, and if the MLB Players Association can agree to terms with the owners, the potential for players to sign massive contracts in the coming years is incredibly high.

Fans have made their stance clear in wanting the league to implement a salary cap in response to the Dodgers’ $385 million payroll in 2025. MLBPA president Tony Clark has openly played devil’s advocate to this and said that teams have not spent enough money to improve their teams and the Dodgers are simply taking advantage of the system and their rich market to go out and bring in some of the top talent around the world to their organization. 

If a salary floor is implemented in the new CBA instead of a salary cap, there will be more of a spread around the league in terms of attracting top talent and assuring they will not be penalized by the league. This would benefit players of all calibers in receiving bigger contracts and hopefully create an even playing field for all 30 teams to have a chance to win every day.

Down the Line

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The 2026-27 and 2027-28 free agent classes are some of the best in recent memory. The 2026-27 class will see players like Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Garrett Crochet, Jonathan India, Michael King, and Tarik Skubal as unrestricted free agents, and potentially Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Sandy Alcantara, and Corbin Burnes if they decide to opt-out or their club options are not exercised by their current teams.

The 2027-28 class could be historic with some of the top catchers, infielders, and pitchers all hitting free agency together. The current record for most money spent on free agents was set this offseason with $3,349,300,000 spent in free agency across the league, and with the average level of talent in this free agent class, there is a realistic chance of this total being broken.

Baseball is in a great place with the young superstars cementing their status as some of the best players in the league and prospects coming through the minor leagues that will be in these conversations very soon. As these players continue to get better and contract values rise, the future of baseball will be equally exciting and expensive.